The 2024 U.S. presidential election, slated for November 5, promises to be a nail-biting contest between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. With polls predicting a close race, the final outcome may remain unclear for several days after Election Day as various states grapple with counting mail and in-person ballots. Given the expected turnout and the battleground state rules for processing and counting ballots, this election could mirror the complex vote-counting process of 2020, when it took days to declare a winner in key states.
Mail-in ballots and early voting trends play a significant role in shaping initial tallies and have led to phenomena such as the “red mirage” and “blue shift.” This occurs because Republicans tend to vote in-person on Election Day, while Democrats often utilize mail-in ballots. This pattern led to Trump’s early lead in several states in 2020, which diminished as mail-in votes were counted. As in 2020, state-specific rules around ballot processing and tallying make predicting Election Day outcomes challenging.
Let’s take a closer look at how vote-counting processes and timelines in key battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—might affect the 2024 presidential election results.
Arizona: Early Voting and the “Late Early” Votes
Arizona’s voters overwhelmingly favor mail voting, with nearly 90% of ballots cast by mail in 2020. State law allows officials to begin processing and tabulating these ballots upon receipt. However, results cannot be released until an hour after polls close on Election Day. Although this streamlined system helps Arizona report early votes efficiently, a large number of mail ballots are often dropped off on Election Day itself. These “late early” votes, which made up one-fifth of all ballots in Maricopa County in 2022, cannot be processed until after the polls close, potentially delaying final results by several days.
The initial vote count is expected to include primarily early mail ballots, which may lean toward Harris, while the tabulation of Election Day votes—likely favoring Trump—could narrow the gap as the count progresses.
Georgia: Early Voting Efficiency and Absentee Ballots
Georgia’s extensive early voting system means that approximately 65% to 70% of ballots are expected to be cast at early voting sites, with absentee ballots making up about 5% of the total vote. Election officials can start processing absentee ballots, including signature verification, two weeks before Election Day. However, they are not permitted to begin counting these ballots until Election Day itself. This early processing rule means that the state can likely report early and absentee votes by 8 p.m. ET on election night, potentially creating a “blue mirage” that appears favorable to Harris.
However, Election Day votes will be reported throughout the evening, which could shift the lead. Ballots from overseas and military voters, accepted if postmarked by November 5 and arriving up to three days post-election, may be crucial in an especially tight race. With over 21,000 requested absentee ballots in these categories, Georgia’s final result may remain uncertain until these are tallied.
Michigan: A New Early Voting Era
For the first time since 2020, Michigan has introduced early in-person voting and allowed larger jurisdictions to begin processing mail ballots up to eight days before the election, with smaller areas starting a day prior. These adjustments aim to prevent the prolonged delays Michigan faced in 2020, when a “red mirage” saw Trump initially leading due to quick reporting of Election Day votes. Mail ballots, counted more slowly, eventually gave Biden the lead.
This year, officials hope that Michigan’s vote count will progress more swiftly, allowing for quicker results. Nevertheless, depending on turnout and the volume of mail ballots, it may still take several days to declare an official winner in the state, especially if the race remains close.
Nevada: Faster Processing, but a Likely Delay
Nevada’s vote-counting process in 2020 became the subject of viral memes due to its prolonged tally, with the state’s final call coming five days after Election Day. Changes to voting laws since then have permitted counties to start processing and counting mail ballots on October 21, aiming to speed up the process.
On Election Day, early in-person votes can be tabulated beginning at 8 a.m. PT, rather than waiting until polls close. However, the state’s acceptance of mail ballots postmarked by November 5 for up to four days post-election means Nevada might still experience a delay in finalizing results. These late-arriving ballots, which often favor Democrats, could result in a “blue shift” as counting continues.
North Carolina: Early Mail Ballots and a Potential Weeklong Wait
In North Carolina, mail ballots are processed and scanned ahead of Election Day, allowing for a quick reporting of early and absentee votes shortly after polls close. Consequently, the first batch of results will likely include mail-in ballots and early votes, potentially giving Harris an early lead.
As Election Day votes are added throughout the night, the vote count may shift in favor of Trump. North Carolina allows absentee ballots postmarked by November 5 to be counted during a 10-day canvass period, including overseas and military ballots. This period means that, in an exceptionally tight race, the final outcome could remain unresolved for over a week, as was the case in 2020 when media outlets did not call North Carolina for Trump until November 13.
Pennsylvania: The Crucial Battleground with Delayed Mail Ballots
Pennsylvania, perhaps the most crucial swing state, does not allow any mail ballots to be processed before 7 a.m. on Election Day. This delay in processing led to days of uncertainty in 2020 as election officials dealt with a backlog of mail-in ballots, which leaned Democratic. Early results in Pennsylvania are thus likely to show Trump leading based on in-person votes, with Harris potentially gaining ground as mail ballots are processed over the following days.
A new law requires most counties to announce by midnight on election night the number of outstanding mail ballots. This transparency measure is intended to prevent conspiracy theories about “mysterious” vote totals. However, the extensive time required to process and count mail ballots means that Pennsylvania may still take several days to finalize results.
Wisconsin: Delayed Mail Ballots and Early Morning Shifts
Wisconsin also prohibits mail ballot processing before Election Day morning, contributing to delays in reporting final results. Many of Wisconsin’s largest cities transport mail ballots to a central location for counting, meaning that substantial updates often arrive in the early hours following Election Day.
This pattern was observed in 2020, when Milwaukee reported around 170,000 absentee ballots at approximately 3:30 a.m., shifting the lead to Biden. Trump’s supporters misinterpreted this surge as suspicious, though it was expected due to Wisconsin’s centralized ballot processing. A similar process is anticipated in 2024, with early morning shifts potentially favoring Harris as absentee ballots are reported in batches.
The Big Picture: Uncertainty and Potential Delays
The 2024 election will likely see variations of the “red mirage” and “blue shift” as states with diverse ballot-processing timelines report their counts. Mail-in voting, heavily favored by Democrats, often skews results toward Harris in later counts, while in-person Election Day voting could initially favor Trump in many battleground states. As in 2020, these patterns could lead to fluctuating vote counts and a delay in finalizing the results in close states.
In this razor-thin race, election officials will be under intense scrutiny, especially as ballots are counted over several days. The intricate rules and timelines across battleground states mean that Americans—and the world—may once again have to wait patiently for the final outcome. With state-specific counting laws, mail-in voting dynamics, and the potential for narrow margins, the election may not be decided on Election Day itself but rather in the days or even weeks that follow.
